Categories

The Marvel Heroes 2016 servers are up and running. Thank you for your patience.
«1345

Random Hero Box Calculator 1.15

Posts: 953 Amazing
edited April 1

Hello everyone! I have been getting and seeing a fairly large number of questions regarding when a random hero box is worthwhile to purchase.

In particular, I know most people look for a straight yes or no answer to the question of whether or not it's a good idea for their current situation and for what they want AND don't want. I wanted to make a tool that is:

  • Simple to use
  • Easy to understand (gives a clear, actionable output)
  • Examines more deeply whether or not a random box is a good idea, based on what YOU, the user, wants or does not want.

Enter The Random Hero Box Calculator!!!!! It's a relatively simple spreadsheet, but calculates several aspects related to purchasing a random box, some of which have not really been examined, and gives a unique, usable output.

First and foremost, a HUGE thanks to both @Mjoll‌ and @ItsJustMe‌ (with their threads here and here, respectively). They laid the foundation, I am just expanding on their work with this sheet.

I am intrigued.... tell me more....

It is very simple to use (instructions are included in the sheet):

The yellow boxes are what you fill out. There are three columns that get put into the mix of calculations:

  • Column 1 - Do you own the hero already? If so, put any text in the box.
  • Column 2 - Do you not own, but WANT the hero? If so, put text in the box. If you don't WANT the hero, leave this (and the others) blank.
  • Column 3 - Do you own the hero but are fine with receiving an ultimate upgrade token for them? If so, put text in BOTH the 1st and 3rd column.

Once you're finished, this sheet calculates and outputs 2 numerical values and 2 word "values":

  • Plain statistical probably you'll get a result you want (non-owned, wanted heroes + desired upgrade tokens)
  • Cost basis analysis of buying a box - this compares the total cost of buying everything you want (cost of wanted heroes + 200 ES per ult token) to what the average cost of a desirable random box would be (i.e. if you want EVERY outcome, this would be 175. If you only want half the outcomes, this would be 350). A ratio above 1 means that the average cost of a random box is less than the total cost individually, therefore a random box in in your best interest.

The word "values" are my way of trying to indicate, on a most basic level, if buying a box is a good idea for the situation input to the sheet.

  • The statistical probably wordings are split into 6 brackets depending on the percentage
  • Currently the cost basis is a simple 'yes' or 'no', using 1.0 as the turning point.

For example, here's what it looks like filled in and the output:

Here's a focus on the output and calculations:

Sounds nifty! Where do I find it???

The spreadsheet is currently on Google Docs but is downloadable by either clicking File-->Download as-->Spreadsheet or the big download button on the toolbar, depending on how it opens up, at which point you may use it to your heart's content.

anything else?

A couple things, yes.

First, as I was making this sheet, I was watching Futurama. Due to this, I made a flavored variant:

The vast majority of the text is identical and ALL the calculations are the same, just some minor flavor changes.

If you prefer, you can get the Futurama version here

I do plan on maintaining this as new heroes are released, potentially getting new features, etc., primarily dependent on response and feedback. Please let me know what you think and if you find it useful. Thank you very much!

Location ButtePosts: 396 Amazing

Hurrah!

Posts: 953 Amazing

@VincenteFox said:
Hurrah!

It is very exciting..... I concur!!!

Posts: 418 Amazing

Very cool idea. Thanks for doing this work for the community:D

Posts: 953 Amazing

@Krodmandoon said:
Very cool idea. Thanks for doing this work for the community:D

Thank you very much and happy to do so! Hope that you can find it helpful.

Posts: 473 Amazing

Awesome work, thanks for this. This spreadsheet seems to imply that Random Hero Boxes actually give us a random chance at a every hero. Is that so? I assumed some of the pricier heroes would be more rare than the cheaper ones. Thanks again!

Posts: 953 Amazing

@newfoundma said:
Awesome work, thanks for this.

Thank you for saying so and you're very welcome!

This spreadsheet seems to imply that Random Hero Boxes actually give us a random chance at a every hero. Is that so? I assumed some of the pricier heroes would be more rare than the cheaper ones. Thanks again!

The random hero boxes aren't like fortune cards where there's the common (200), rare (400), and epic (600) reward tiers. There is indeed an equal chance for a 200, 400, or a 600 ES hero, and thus a 'fair' gamble compared to the fortune cards. It's been clarified several times by the devs even though many players steadfastly disagree based on unfortunate, and unlucky personal experiences.

Posts: 473 Amazing

@Blutspitze said:
The random hero boxes aren't like fortune cards where there's the common (200), rare (400), and epic (600) reward tiers. There is indeed an equal chance for a 200, 400, or a 600 ES hero, and thus a 'fair' gamble compared to the fortune cards. It's been clarified several times by the devs even though many players steadfastly disagree based on unfortunate, and unlucky personal experiences.

Thanks so much for the info! I ended up just buying my first random hero box, and got Deadpool! Not who I was hoping for, but he seems versatile enough and he is a 600 ES hero, so that's pretty cool.

Posts: 953 Amazing

@newfoundma said:
Thanks so much for the info! I ended up just buying my first random hero box, and got Deadpool! Not who I was hoping for, but he seems versatile enough and he is a 600 ES hero, so that's pretty cool.

Glad to hear! If nothing else you got excellent value for the ES you put in, so always a plus. I'm..... alright with Deadpool personally. I anxiously await his review to see if we can get some more viable builds going, and I'm not super thrilled with his ult.

Regardless, happy as always to help and hope you have an awesome time with MH moving forward!

True BelieverPosts: 453 Amazing

This is really nice work here.

Most dismiss random boxes because of the lack of immediate sure thing satisfaction. The bottom line is that you can buy well over 80 random boxes for the price of every her in ES. That means that long-term those buying randoms only needs to sustain about a 46% success rate in order to spend less than they would buying heroes outright. In this case any extra UP tokens or unwanted heroes actually amount to being freebies as you can spend less and get these also.

Always nice to see someone advertising the benefits of random boxes to he comunity

Posts: 953 Amazing

@ItsJustMe said:
This is really nice work here.

Most dismiss random boxes because of the lack of immediate sure thing satisfaction. The bottom line is that you can buy well over 80 random boxes for the price of every her in ES. That means that long-term those buying randoms only needs to sustain about a 46% success rate in order to spend less than they would buying heroes outright. In this case any extra UP tokens or unwanted heroes actually amount to being freebies as you can spend less and get these also.

Always nice to see someone advertising the benefits of random boxes to he comunity

Thank you very much for the comment and thoughts! I totally agree; the random boxes are a great way to have a really fun sort of surprise in-game and they're INCREDIBLY useful for the potential gains that can be obtained. It's ridiculously useful and the people need to know!!!! :D

Thanks again!

Posts: 953 Amazing

UPDATE - v1.01, added in Magneto and X-23 numbers

Location WakandaPosts: 14 Mighty

Actually, Random Hero Boxes are very good if you play a lot this game. I spent 400ES(saturday) on Silver Surfer because I want this Hero and for now I have 162ES, so I am to close to a Random Hero Box in just 3 days and a half.

I once tried a Random Hero Box after get 200ES on story mode with starter Hero but the hero who came out was Emma Frost and I didn't like her to much, hope this time i will get a better Hero, one I enjoy playing.

Posts: 953 Amazing

@Fraankiko said:
Actually, Random Hero Boxes are very good if you play a lot this game. I spent 400ES(saturday) on Silver Surfer because I want this Hero and for now I have 162ES, so I am to close to a Random Hero Box in just 3 days and a half.

Absolutely. Random boxes are probably one of the most underrated features of this game - many people don't realize how helpful they can be and, more importantly, how many ES can potentially be saved.

I once tried a Random Hero Box after get 200ES on story mode with starter Hero but the hero who came out was Emma Frost and I didn't like her to much, hope this time i will get a better Hero, one I enjoy playing.

I hope you do too! I'll cross my digital fingers for you!

Location WakandaPosts: 14 Mighty

Want to know something I was thinking and happened? When I get Emma Frost on Random Box I was at Xavier School, now I was at Odin's Palace and guess what... Thor came out! But that's could be luck but one friend of mine open a Random Box on Avengers Towers and Mrs Marvel came out, open other on Hell's Kitchen and Daredevil came out, and so I repair that the place you open the Random Box decides the hero you get, I could be wrong but this is to much coincidence...

Posts: 953 Amazing

@Fraankiko said:
Want to know something I was thinking and happened? When I get Emma Frost on Random Box I was at Xavier School, now I was at Odin's Palace and guess what... Thor came out! But that's could be luck but one friend of mine open a Random Box on Avengers Towers and Mrs Marvel came out, open other on Hell's Kitchen and Daredevil came out, and so I repair that the place you open the Random Box decides the hero you get, I could be wrong but this is to much coincidence...

It does seem very coincidental, but I would say it ends at such.... just a coincidence. Yes it is interesting and may potentially be something to look into, but I'd imagine the Law of Large Numbers would take over and there wouldn't be a substantial difference if you have data on a bunch of boxes, where they're opened, and when.

But we can dream, right?

Location WakandaPosts: 14 Mighty

Hope it's not just a coincidence :D

Location Say WutPosts: 9,212 Cosmic

bump, you need more awesomes for this.

Posts: 953 Amazing

@Cingatorix said:
bump, you need more awesomes for this.

Thanks so much! It's always great to be appreciated, particularly by the big forum-goers such as yourself :D

Location Say WutPosts: 9,212 Cosmic

@Blutspitze said:
Thanks so much! It's always great to be appreciated, particularly by the big forum-goers such as yourself :D

Thanks, you deserve it.

Posts: 9 Mighty

This is fantastic. I just started 2 weeks ago, and have thus far random boxed Loki, Cable, and Cyclopes! I own Venom, Rogue, and Storm. When I first saw the random boxes I thought "Are you kidding me this is great!" I wouldn't have bought Venom and Rogue had I discovered these first and your spreed sheet will help determine for how long I can get away with this haha.

I noticed venom wasn't on the list, can I add it myself or do i need to wait for an update?

Thanks again!

«1345
Sign In or Register to comment.